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Validate a Probability Distribution

HardStatistics & Probability00:00
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Your question is Validate a Probability Distribution. Take a moment with it on the right.

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Problem

DRW's market-making desk rescales realized slippage on a strategy (in basis points) onto x in [-1, 1] and someone proposes the following candidate density, along with a Monte Carlo sanity check a quant ran before bringing it to you.

Candidate density (claimed to already be normalized):

  f(x) = (3/2) * (1 - x^2),   for x in [-1, 1]
  f(x) = 0,                   otherwise

Monte Carlo check (n = 2000 uniform draws over [-1, 1], estimating the
integral of f over its support):

  estimate of the integral of f(x) over [-1, 1]:  1.98
  95% confidence interval:                        [1.95, 2.01]

Decide whether f is a valid probability density function. Use both an exact analytic check (non-negativity and normalization) and the Monte Carlo confidence interval above, and explain what each one tells you that the other doesn't. Then explain precisely how you would repair f so it's valid.