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Spam Probability Using Bayes

HardStatistics & Probability00:00
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Your question is Spam Probability Using Bayes. Take a moment with it on the right.

Talk me through your thinking if you like. When you're confident, submit your answer and I'll grade it like a real screen (7/10 or better passes).

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Problem

In una casella di posta elettronica il 60% è spam e il 40% è lecita. La parola "gratis" è contenuta nel 10% delle mail lecite e nel 70% delle mail di spam. Qual è la probabilità che una mail che contiene la parola "gratis" sia spam?