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Semi-Circle Random Points Probability

HardStatistics & Probability00:00
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Your question is Semi-Circle Random Points Probability. Take a moment with it on the right.

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Problem

If you generate n points at random locations on a circumference, what's the probability that all of the points will lie on the same semi-circle?

Assume the points are independently and uniformly distributed around the circumference, and that points exactly on a semicircle boundary have probability zero. Derive a closed-form expression in terms of n and evaluate it for the supplied example.

Given Data

QuantityValue
Number of points, n8
Simulation trials for verification1,000,000

Requirements

  1. Derive the probability rather than relying only on geometric intuition.
  2. Explain why the relevant cases do not overlap, except on probability-zero boundary events.
  3. Evaluate the expression for n = 8.
  4. Verify the result with a Monte Carlo simulation.
  5. State the assumptions and important edge cases.

Assumptions

  • Locations are independent and uniform on the circumference.
  • A semicircle includes either endpoint, with boundary ties ignored as probability-zero events.