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Seasonality vs Product Issue Detection

Hard
HardStatistics & ProbabilityRegressionCorrelationTime SeriesAsked 10 times

Problem

Scenario

You are tracking daily completed rides on the Didi Chuxing rider app and see a decline right after a dispatch flow update. The series has strong weekday and holiday effects, so raw trend comparison is misleading.

Question

How would you use time-series trends to separate seasonality from a real product issue?

Example Data

metric·Daily completed ridespre_mean·102143post_mean·94429pre_period_days·56intervention_day·57post_period_days·14estimated_holiday_effect·-12400estimated_weekend_effect·-18500

What You Need to Show

  • Separate recurring seasonal patterns from underlying trend
  • Estimate whether the post-change drop remains after controlling for seasonality
  • Test whether the intervention effect is statistically distinguishable from noise
  • Translate the result into a product diagnosis
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