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Seasonality vs Product Change Diagnosis

Hard
HardStatistics & ProbabilityCorrelationCausal InferenceTime SeriesAsked 2 times

Problem

Scenario

You notice that sample downloads on Splice fell after a recent product change in Browse and Search. Download behavior also has recurring weekly and monthly patterns, so the drop may be seasonal rather than caused by the release.

Question

How would you investigate whether a drop in sample downloads is caused by product changes or seasonality?

What You Observe

Estimated residual effect·-1,400 per daySeasonal baseline for post period·111,200Post-period average daily downloads·109,800Recent pre-period average daily downloads·121,400
Practicing as: Product Growth Analyst interview at Splice

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