Your question is Seasonality vs Launch Impact. Take a moment with it on the right.
Talk me through your thinking if you like. When you're confident, submit your answer and I'll grade it like a real screen (7/10 or better passes).
You've shipped a product change and want to understand whether the movement in a key metric reflects normal recurring patterns or a true product effect. The team wants to separate expected calendar behavior from launch-driven impact so decisions are based on signal, not noise.
How would you identify whether a metric change is seasonal or caused by a product launch?