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Retention Change vs Seasonality

Hard
HardStatistics & ProbabilityHypothesis TestingCausal InferenceTime Series
Asked 2mo ago|
Inc.
Inc.
Asked 10 times

Problem

Scenario

You launched a retention-facing change on a Meta surface such as Instagram Reels or Facebook Groups, and retention moved right after launch. The same period overlaps with known seasonal traffic patterns, so a simple before-after read is not enough.

Question

How would you diagnose whether a launch caused a change in retention versus a seasonal effect?

Meta context

  • Primary metric is retention, often read alongside AARRR funnel movement
  • Useful covariates include pre-period retention, prior Reels engagement, and Instagram Save behavior
  • If this came from an experiment, check Sample Ratio Mismatch before trusting treatment-control comparisons
  • Watch for novelty effect if the post-launch lift decays quickly
Practicing as: Product Growth Analyst interview at Meta

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