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Real-Time Message Delivery Prioritization

HardSystem Design00:00
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Your question is Real-Time Message Delivery Prioritization. Take a moment with it on the right.

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Problem

Scenario

You are designing the ML layer for a real-time chat application with one-to-one and group messaging. The core transport system already handles basic send, ack, and retry semantics, but delivery quality varies across device state, network conditions, and recipient availability. Your team wants an ML system that predicts delivery risk in real time so the app can choose retry strategy, push escalation, and queue prioritization to improve delivered-within-seconds rate without breaking message ordering. This directly impacts user trust and engagement on the messaging surface.

Scale

SignalValue
DAU900M
Peak message send QPS3.5M
Peak delivery-attempt QPS12M
Group chats share of messages18%
Max common group size512 members
p99 decision latency budget25ms
Feature freshness target< 60s

Question

How would you design this end-to-end ML system so it can score delivery risk and choose delivery actions in real time at scale, while preserving message ordering guarantees and handling delayed labels, feature drift, training-serving skew, and online failures?