Your question is Probability and Financial Math. Take a moment with it on the right.
Talk me through your thinking if you like. When you're confident, submit your answer and I'll grade it like a real screen (7/10 or better passes).
Explain how you would use financial mathematics and probability theory to solve a data problem.
Give a practical, end-to-end framework rather than a purely theoretical answer. State assumptions, define uncertain financial quantities, calculate expected value and risk, and explain how you would validate the model and communicate a decision.