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Measure Demand Pull-Forward from Promotion

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Your question is Measure Demand Pull-Forward from Promotion. Take a moment with it on the right.

Talk me through your thinking if you like. When you're confident, submit your answer and I'll grade it like a real screen (7/10 or better passes).

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Scenario

You work on a retail apparel business and a promotion appears to lift sales during the promo window. Finance is concerned the spike may just be demand pulled forward from future weeks rather than incremental volume.

Question

How would you analyze whether the promotion increased sales or just pulled demand forward? What would you define as the primary metric, what guardrails would you track, and how would you decide whether to ship the promotion again?