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Explain P-Value in Marketing Test

EasyStatistics & Probability00:00
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Problem

Business Context

BrightCart, a retail app, tested a new promotional banner to increase email sign-ups. The VP of Marketing saw a p-value in the experiment readout and asked, "What does this actually mean in plain English?"

Problem Statement

You need to evaluate the A/B test statistically and then explain the p-value to a non-technical stakeholder without using misleading language. Use the data below to determine whether the banner likely changed sign-up behavior.

Given Data

GroupSample SizeSign-upsConversion Rate
Control (old banner)8,4001,00812.0%
Treatment (new banner)8,1001,05313.0%

Additional test settings:

ParameterValue
Significance level0.05
Test typeTwo-tailed

Requirements

  1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.
  2. Compute the sample proportions for control and treatment.
  3. Calculate the pooled proportion and standard error for a two-proportion z-test.
  4. Compute the z-statistic and two-tailed p-value.
  5. Decide whether the result is statistically significant at α=0.05\alpha = 0.05α=0.05.
  6. Write a 2-3 sentence explanation of the p-value for the VP of Marketing in plain English.
  7. Briefly explain one common incorrect interpretation of a p-value.

Assumptions

  • Users were randomly assigned to control and treatment.
  • Each observation is independent.
  • Sample sizes are large enough for the normal approximation to hold.
  • No major instrumentation or tracking issues affected sign-up counts.