Diagnosing Seasonal Metric Movement

HardStatistics & Probability00:00

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Problem

Scenario

You notice that a key product metric moved, and the team wants to know whether it reflects a real change or a recurring calendar pattern. You have historical daily data and need to separate normal seasonality from an unusual shift.

Question

How would you investigate whether a metric moved because of a seasonality pattern?

What this tests

Recognizing seasonality in product metrics
Building a seasonal baseline from historical data
Testing whether post-period residuals differ from zero
Using regression controls to separate calendar effects from real shifts