Diagnose Meta Ads Client Decline

Business Context

You are the Account Executive for a large DTC retailer spending $4.8M per quarter on Meta Ads across Facebook, Instagram, and Reels placements. The client says performance has deteriorated over the last 6 weeks and is considering shifting 20% of budget to another channel.

Metric Scenario

Compared with the prior 6-week period, spend is up from $1.10M to $1.25M (+14%), impressions are up 18%, CTR fell from 1.8% to 1.5%, landing page view rate after click fell from 82% to 74%, purchase conversion rate from landing page view fell from 4.6% to 3.9%, and blended ROAS declined from 2.9x to 2.2x. Frequency increased from 2.7 to 4.1. CPM rose from $11.20 to $12.80, while CPC increased from $0.62 to $0.85. Existing customer purchases are flat, but new customer purchases are down 19%. The client launched 12 new creatives, expanded into Reels, and changed the website checkout flow during the same period.

Requirements

1. Define the primary KPI you would use to diagnose the client challenge and explain why.
2. Decompose the KPI into the major drivers across media delivery, on-platform engagement, site conversion, and retention/new-vs-existing customer mix.
3. Identify the top 3 hypotheses for the decline and specify which metric movements support each one.
4. Prioritize what you would investigate first and what you would tell the client in an initial readout.
5. Recommend 3 concrete actions and the success metrics you would monitor after changes are made.

Data Available

• Meta Ads Manager campaign/ad set/ad-level delivery data
• Meta Pixel and Conversions API event logs
• Breakdown reports by placement, audience, creative, geography, and device
• Website funnel events: landing page view, add to cart, initiate checkout, purchase
• CRM export with new vs existing customer flag and 30-day repeat purchase behavior