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Diagnose Conversion Drop Post Launch

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Your question is Diagnose Conversion Drop Post Launch. Take a moment with it on the right.

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Problem

Scenario

You are investigating a sudden drop in conversion rate after a product launch on a digital application flow. In the 7 days before launch, visit-to-completion conversion was 4.8%, and in the 3 days after launch it fell to 3.1%. Traffic volume stayed roughly flat at about 120,000 sessions per day, but leadership is concerned because the launch was meant to improve the funnel, not hurt it. You need to determine whether the decline is real, where in the funnel it started, and whether it is concentrated in specific user groups or launch-exposed cohorts.

Question

How would you diagnose a sudden drop in conversion rate after a product launch?