You are investigating a consumer social product where DAU fell from 18.4M to 16.9M over the last 7 days, an 8.2% drop versus the prior week. The decline started on Tuesday, one day after a mobile release and a change to event logging for Discord Home and push opens. MAU is flat at 92M, and the drop looks larger on iOS than Android. Leadership wants to know quickly whether this is a real product problem, a measurement issue, or normal seasonality.
How would you investigate whether a drop in DAU is caused by a product issue, a measurement issue, or a seasonal effect?
Separate true user behavior change from broken instrumentationUse Discord-specific surfaces like Discord Home, DMs, servers, voice, and push re-entry pointsCompare recent movement against release timing and historical seasonal baselines