Your question is Conditional Probability in Fraud Screening. Take a moment with it on the right.
Talk me through your thinking if you like. When you're confident, submit your answer and I'll grade it like a real screen (7/10 or better passes).
You are reviewing transaction risk signals and want to quantify how one event changes the probability of another. A common example is asking for the chance a transaction is actually fraudulent after it has been flagged by a screening rule.
How do you calculate conditional probability?