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Causal Onboarding Impact on Retention

HardStatistics & Probability00:00
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Your question is Causal Onboarding Impact on Retention. Take a moment with it on the right.

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Problem

Scenario

You changed the onboarding flow and saw better retention afterward. The concern is that the lift may reflect selection effects or broader user mix changes rather than the onboarding itself.

Question

How would you evaluate whether a change in onboarding is actually causal, rather than just correlated with better retention?

What this tests

  • Can you distinguish correlation from causation in product retention analysis?
  • Do you know when randomized experiments are the cleanest design?
  • Can you use regression adjustment when randomization is unavailable?
  • Can you interpret effect size, uncertainty, and business impact together?