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Biased Coin Identification

HardStatistics & Probability00:00
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Your question is Biased Coin Identification. Take a moment with it on the right.

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Problem

If you have a bag of coins where one coin is double-sided heads, how many flips would it take to be 99% sure you have drawn the biased coin? The answer is not unique unless the number of coins, the prior probability of selecting the double-headed coin, and the decision rule are specified. Derive the general Bayesian result, then evaluate the common equal-prior case where the selected coin is equally likely to be double-headed or fair and evidence consists of consecutive heads.