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Assess Model Calibration

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Your question is Assess Model Calibration. Take a moment with it on the right.

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Problem

Scenario

You have a model that outputs probabilities for a binary decision, and the team wants to know whether those scores can be trusted as probabilities. The model looks acceptable on ranking metrics, but people are unsure whether a score of 0.8 really means an 80% chance of the positive class.

Question

How would you assess whether a model is calibrated?