Your question is Expected Value Decision Making. Take a moment with it on the right.
Talk me through your thinking if you like. When you're confident, submit your answer and I'll grade it like a real screen (7/10 or better passes).
You are on a game show and have the choice to walk away with a guaranteed cash prize or play a game with a known probability of a higher payout. How do you calculate the expected value, and what factors influence your decision?