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Testing Model Quality Improvement

MediumStatistics & Probability00:00
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Your question is Testing Model Quality Improvement. Take a moment with it on the right.

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Problem

Scenario

You retrained a model and saw better offline quality on a held-out evaluation set. Before shipping it, you want to know whether the observed lift is real or could plausibly be noise from the sample you evaluated on.

Question

How would you determine whether an observed improvement in model quality is statistically significant?