IMFEasyStatistics & Probability00:00Welcome to your interview for the Financial Analyst role at IMF.
The question is on your right: Testing GDP Signal in Forecast Briefings. Take a moment with it first.
Talk your thinking through with me if you like - when you're confident, submit your answer and I'll grade it like a real screen. You have three graded attempts to score 7/10 or better.
At MacroPulse, a financial intelligence platform, analysts publish a weekly “global outlook” note. Management wants to know whether the team’s briefing process is actually aligned with real global economic movement, rather than just reacting to noise.
You are given 12 recent months of data comparing the platform’s monthly economic sentiment score with the actual monthly global GDP growth surprise index. Test whether the average difference between the two series is zero, and quantify the uncertainty around that difference.
The sentiment score and GDP surprise index are both standardized to comparable monthly units.
| Month | Sentiment Score | GDP Surprise Index | Difference (Sentiment - GDP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.42 | 0.35 | 0.07 |
| 2 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.03 |
| 3 | 0.15 | 0.22 | -0.07 |
| 4 | -0.05 | 0.01 | -0.06 |
| 5 | -0.18 | -0.12 | -0.06 |
| 6 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.04 |
| 7 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| 8 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| 9 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| 10 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| 11 | -0.09 | -0.03 | -0.06 |
| 12 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
Use a significance level of 0.05.