Problem
Business Context
CartJet is a large e-commerce marketplace (~8M weekly active users) optimizing its mobile checkout. A redesign reduces the number of form fields and adds Apple Pay earlier in the flow. Finance estimates that each additional completed order is worth $6.40 in contribution margin on average, so even small conversion lifts are meaningful.
The team wants to run a controlled A/B test (50/50 traffic split) and needs to decide how long to run the experiment to reliably detect a meaningful improvement.
Problem Statement
You are asked to determine the minimum sample size per group required to detect a lift in checkout conversion rate with adequate power, and then translate that into estimated test duration given expected traffic.
Given Data
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Baseline checkout conversion rate (control) | 0.118 (11.8%) |
| Minimum detectable effect (absolute lift) | 0.006 (0.6 percentage points) |
| Significance level | α = 0.05 |
| Desired power | 1 − β = 0.80 |
| Allocation | 50% control / 50% treatment |
| Eligible checkout-start users per day | 320,000 |
| Guardrail: you will not ship unless the 95% CI excludes 0 | Use two-sided test |
Requirements
- State the null and alternative hypotheses for the primary metric (conversion rate).
- Compute the minimum required sample size per group using a normal approximation for a two-sample test of proportions.
- Convert the sample size into an estimated test duration in days given the daily eligible traffic and 50/50 split.
- Briefly explain what inputs most strongly drive sample size (and how product decisions like choosing a smaller MDE affect runtime).
Assumptions and Constraints
- Users are randomly assigned and each user contributes at most one checkout attempt (independent Bernoulli outcomes).
- Use a two-sided hypothesis test at α = 0.05.
- Use the common planning approximation for two proportions:
- Use p̄ = (p1 + p2)/2 in the variance term (planning value).
- z-values from the standard normal distribution.
- Ignore sequential testing/peeking adjustments (assume you will not stop early based on interim looks).
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