Meaningful Retention Lift or Noise

Scenario

You work on a digital product team that has tested a change intended to improve user retention. Early results show a small difference between control and treatment, but stakeholders are unsure whether the change reflects a real improvement or ordinary random variation.

Question

How would you decide whether the observed retention change is meaningful rather than noise? Walk through how you would frame the hypothesis, evaluate significance and practical impact, and determine whether to trust the result.