Problem
Project Context
DoorDash is preparing a new fraud detection rules engine for its merchant payouts product after a recent spike in chargebacks increased monthly losses by 18%. You are the program manager leading a cross-functional team of 9 people (3 engineers, 2 data scientists, 1 analyst, 1 product manager, 1 risk operations lead, 1 QA lead) to ship an initial release before the holiday order surge in 8 weeks.
The tension is clear: the data science team wants two more weeks to improve model calibration and reduce false positives, while Finance and Operations want a faster release to stop payout fraud immediately. Leadership has asked for a recommendation on whether to launch a simpler rules-based version now, delay for a more accurate version, or phase the rollout.
Key Stakeholders
The VP of Risk wants fraud loss reduction this quarter. The Head of Merchant Operations is concerned that false positives will freeze legitimate merchant payouts and increase support tickets. The Engineering Manager wants to avoid a rushed launch that creates production instability. Finance expects at least $1.2M in annualized loss prevention if the release goes live before the holiday peak.
Constraints
- Timeline: 8 weeks to launch before November 1
- Budget: $180,000 remaining; no new headcount
- Data dependency: calibration dataset for the latest merchant cohort will not be complete until Week 5
- Engineering capacity: 1 backend engineer is allocated 40% to a parallel compliance project
- Rollout scope: US only for v1, covering 65% of payout volume
Complications
- Early offline tests show the simple rules engine catches 70% of known fraud but may increase false-positive payout holds by 1.8%.
- Sales has already told several large merchants that payout reliability will not worsen during holiday season.
- Legal requires an auditable appeal workflow if more than 1% of merchants are auto-held.
Deliverables
- Recommend a launch approach that balances analytical rigor with business urgency.
- Build an 8-week execution plan with milestones, owners, and dependencies.
- Define launch success criteria and guardrails, including rollback thresholds.
- Identify top delivery and business risks with mitigation actions.
- Prepare a stakeholder communication plan for executives, operations, and merchant-facing teams.
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