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Handle Seasonality and Shocks

HardStatistics & Probability00:00
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Your question is Handle Seasonality and Shocks. Take a moment with it on the right.

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Problem

How do you account for seasonality and external market shocks when analyzing historical time-series data?

Describe a practical statistical workflow that separates recurring seasonal effects from shocks, identifies structural breaks, and avoids contaminating forecasts with one-off events. Explain how you would choose the model, validate the adjustment, and communicate uncertainty. State the assumptions and diagnostics you would use, including how you would handle an unknown or changing seasonal pattern.