Your question is Forecast Next Quarterly Revenue Growth. Take a moment with it on the right.
Talk me through your thinking if you like. When you're confident, submit your answer and I'll grade it like a real screen (7/10 or better passes).
FinEdge, a B2B SaaS company, tracks quarterly revenue growth to guide hiring and budget planning. The CFO wants a simple statistical forecast for next quarter based only on recent growth history.
You are given the last 8 quarterly revenue growth rates. Estimate the expected growth rate for the next quarter and justify the method statistically.
| Quarter | Revenue Growth |
|---|---|
| Q1 | 4.2% |
| Q2 | 5.1% |
| Q3 | 4.8% |
| Q4 | 5.4% |
| Q5 | 4.9% |
| Q6 | 5.3% |
| Q7 | 5.0% |
| Q8 | 5.2% |
Assume quarterly growth rates are independent draws from a stable distribution with no trend or seasonality, and that a normal model is reasonable for short-term forecasting.