Problem
Business Context
HelloFresh has seen a sudden decline in new customer conversion on its web and app signup funnel in the last 2 weeks. The Growth PM wants to know whether the issue is coming from traffic quality, a specific funnel step, a platform change, or a measurement problem.
Metric Scenario
Weekly visitor-to-paid-order conversion for the HelloFresh signup funnel fell from 6.4% to 4.9% (-1.5 pp, -23%). Traffic volume was roughly flat at 1.2M weekly landing visitors. Step-level rates changed as follows:
- Landing page account creation start: 42% 39%
- Account creation start account created: 78% 74%
- Account created plan selected: 71% 62%
- Plan selected checkout started: 83% 80%
- Checkout started first order placed: 33% 31%
At the same time, paid social traffic mix increased from 28% to 36% of sessions, Android app traffic grew from 18% to 24%, and Germany remained stable while the US conversion dropped from 7.1% to 5.2%. A pricing banner and a checkout UX change were launched on HelloFresh web 10 days ago.
Requirements
- Define the primary conversion metric and the exact funnel stages you would use.
- Decompose the drop to identify the biggest driver(s) by step, channel, device, geography, and cohort.
- Explain how you would distinguish a real product issue from traffic-mix shift or instrumentation breakage.
- List the first hypotheses you would test and the order you would test them.
- Recommend immediate actions and guardrail metrics to monitor.
Data Available
signup_funnel_eventsweb_session_logsapp_event_logscheckout_ordersmarketing_attributionexperiment_exposure_logspricing_banner_impressions
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