You are supporting a consumer social platform that wants a clearer view of near term growth. Leadership needs a forecast for the next two quarters to guide planning across marketing, product launches, and creator partnerships.
How would you approach building a growth model to forecast user acquisition for the next two quarters?
Structuring a top-down and bottom-up growth forecastEstimating channel-level acquisition driversUsing historical trends and seasonality in a short-horizon forecastSeparating acquisition from activation and early retentionTurning uncertainty into base, upside, and downside scenariosServer invites and shared invite linksApp Store and Play Store installs for Discord mobileDesktop download trafficRegistration and onboarding completionNew user activation into a server, DM, or voice session