Business Context

NotionFlow is a B2B SaaS collaboration product for small teams. The leadership team is debating whether to invest next quarter in acquisition, onboarding, or retention because revenue growth slowed from 18% to 9% quarter-over-quarter.

Metric Scenario

In the last quarter, monthly website visitors were 1.2M, signup conversion fell from 6.0% to 5.2%, activation (creating a first workspace within 7 days) improved from 62% to 68%, and 90-day retention declined from 41% to 34%. Paid conversion from active free teams to paid dropped from 12% to 10%. CAC increased from $180 to $235, while LTV fell from $1,450 to $1,180. The CEO asks: "How should we use this data to decide where to focus, and what metrics should guide the decision?"

Requirements

1. Define the primary KPI you would use to guide the decision and explain why it should be prioritized over the others.
2. Decompose the KPI into the major funnel and retention components driving the slowdown.
3. Identify which metric changes are likely leading indicators versus lagging indicators.
4. Recommend the highest-priority business action based on the data and explain the expected impact.
5. Propose 2-3 guardrail metrics to ensure the decision does not improve one part of the funnel while hurting overall business performance.

Data Available

• web_traffic_daily: visitor_id, date, channel, campaign_id, landing_page, device_type
• signup_events: user_id, signup_timestamp, acquisition_channel, company_size, country
• workspace_events: user_id, workspace_id, event_name, event_timestamp, team_size
• subscription_history: workspace_id, plan_type, trial_start_date, paid_start_date, mrr, cancellation_date
• cohort_retention: signup_month, activated_users, retained_d30, retained_d90, retained_d180