At Meridian Capital, an analyst is building a simple country health screen for emerging-market bond investments. Rather than listing indicators qualitatively, the team wants a quick statistical check on whether the latest year shows a meaningful deterioration in macro conditions.
You are given annual macroeconomic data for a country over the last 10 years. Use the data to assess financial health by focusing on four common indicators: real GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and government debt-to-GDP. Then test whether the latest year's inflation is significantly higher than the country's historical average.
| Year | GDP Growth (%) | Inflation (%) | Unemployment (%) | Debt-to-GDP (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 6.8 | 54.0 |
| 2016 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 55.3 |
| 2017 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 6.2 | 53.8 |
| 2018 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 6.0 | 52.7 |
| 2019 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 54.5 |
| 2020 | -4.2 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 63.2 |
| 2021 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 66.8 |
| 2022 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 68.4 |
| 2023 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 69.1 |
| 2024 | 1.8 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 71.0 |
Assume the first 9 years (2015-2023) represent the historical baseline, and 2024 is the current year to evaluate.