Company Context

VitaTrack is a digital health company with 3.2 million monthly active users across fitness tracking and meal logging products in North America and Western Europe. The company generated $48 million in revenue last year, primarily from a $9.99/month premium subscription and a small B2B wellness offering. VitaTrack is profitable at the EBITDA level, but growth has slowed from 38% to 14% year over year as the core calorie-tracking category matures.

Management is considering a new product initiative: VitaTrack Coach, an AI-powered nutrition coaching subscription that generates personalized meal plans, grocery lists, and weekly behavior nudges. The CEO wants to know whether the market is large enough to justify a dedicated launch and whether the company should prioritize direct-to-consumer (D2C) or employer-channel distribution first.

Strategic Situation

You are the Head of Strategy. The executive team needs a recommendation in the next 3 weeks to finalize the annual planning cycle. Your task is not just to produce a top-down TAM slide, but to estimate a realistic market opportunity, assess competitive dynamics, and recommend an initial go-to-market path for the next 12-18 months.

The product is expected to launch first in the US, then expand internationally if early traction is strong. Leadership is debating whether this is a meaningful adjacent growth driver or an attractive but ultimately niche feature that should remain bundled inside the existing premium plan.

Data Points

Additional market inputs:

• Estimated annual spend in the US on digital weight management and nutrition apps: $3.6 billion
• Three leading competitors have a combined 22 million US MAUs and estimated blended paid conversion of 8-10%
• Employer wellness channel could provide access to 14 million covered lives through existing broker relationships, but sales cycles average 6-9 months
• Product development and launch budget approved for year 1: $8 million

Deliverables

1. Estimate the market size for VitaTrack Coach using a clear TAM, SAM, and 3-year SOM view.
2. Build a bottom-up revenue case for both D2C and employer-channel entry.
3. Assess the competitive landscape and where VitaTrack may have an advantage or disadvantage.
4. Recommend whether VitaTrack should launch Coach as a standalone product, add-on, or bundled feature.
5. Propose an initial go-to-market strategy with milestones for the first 12 months.

Constraints

• Recommendation must fit within the existing $8 million first-year budget.
• The company can hire at most 12 additional FTEs this year.
• Leadership expects the initiative to show a credible path to $15 million annualized revenue by the end of year 3.
• The product must launch in the US within 9 months or funding may be reallocated to other growth bets.