Project Background

At Notion, the Growth team is deciding whether to launch a new AI-powered workspace pricing tier before the end of the quarter. Early pilot data from 18,000 workspaces shows mixed results: enterprise conversion improved by 6.8%, SMB conversion declined by 2.1%, and support tickets per active workspace increased by 14%. The CEO wants a recommendation in 10 days because Finance needs the revenue forecast for the board meeting.

You are the program manager coordinating a 12-person cross-functional team across Product, Engineering, Data Science, Finance, Sales, Support, and Marketing. The challenge is that the data does not support a simple yes/no launch decision. A nuanced recommendation may involve a phased rollout, segment-specific packaging, or a delayed launch for some customer groups.

Key Stakeholders

The VP of Product wants to ship this quarter to maintain roadmap credibility. Finance wants a defensible revenue forecast with low downside risk. Sales wants the enterprise tier available immediately for 25 late-stage deals. Support is concerned that current onboarding flows will increase ticket volume beyond team capacity. Engineering has only one release window left this quarter.

Constraints

• Decision memo due in 10 calendar days
• Launch window available on June 27 only
• Remaining project budget: $120,000
• Team capacity: 7 engineers, 1 designer, 1 data scientist, 1 PM, 1 PMM, 1 support ops lead
• Support can absorb at most 8% ticket growth without temporary staffing
• Finance requires a forecast with scenarios covering at least $3M ARR downside/upside range

Complications

1. The pilot excluded self-serve international customers, who represent 22% of new signups.
2. A competitor announced a similar AI tier launching in six weeks.
3. Sales has already verbally referenced the new tier in several enterprise negotiations.

Your Task

1. Propose how you would communicate a recommendation when the evidence supports a nuanced answer rather than a binary decision.
2. Build an execution plan for the next 30 days, including launch/no-launch branches.
3. Define the trade-offs of a full launch, phased launch, or delay.
4. Specify success criteria, decision thresholds, and stakeholder communication cadence.
5. Identify the top risks and how you would mitigate them.