Business Context
A gaming startup, FairPlay Labs, is evaluating whether a coin-flip game is attractive to users while remaining economically fair. A player pays a fixed entry fee to play 100 flips of a biased coin that lands heads 60% of the time.
Problem Statement
For each flip, the player wins \1foraheadandloses1 for a tail. Determine the fair price a rational player should be willing to pay for one 100-flip game, and quantify the variability of outcomes.
Given Data
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Probability of heads | 0.60 |
| Probability of tails | 0.40 |
| Payoff for head | +\$1 |
| Payoff for tail | -\$1 |
| Number of flips per game | 100 |
Let Xi be the payoff from flip i, and let total game payoff be S=∑i=1100Xi.
Requirements
- Compute the expected payoff for a single flip.
- Compute the expected payoff for the full 100-flip game.
- Compute the variance and standard deviation of a single flip.
- Compute the variance and standard deviation of the 100-flip total payoff.
- State the maximum fair entry price a risk-neutral player should pay.
- Briefly explain how the answer would differ for a risk-averse player.
Assumptions
- Coin flips are independent.
- The 60% head probability is known and stable.
- The player is risk-neutral unless otherwise stated.
- Ignore discounting, transaction costs, and utility curvature unless explicitly discussing risk aversion.