Business Context

HelloFresh has seen a sudden decline in new customer conversion on its web and app signup funnel in the last 2 weeks. The Growth PM wants to know whether the issue is coming from traffic quality, a specific funnel step, a platform change, or a measurement problem.

Metric Scenario

Weekly visitor-to-paid-order conversion for the HelloFresh signup funnel fell from 6.4% to 4.9% (-1.5 pp, -23%). Traffic volume was roughly flat at 1.2M weekly landing visitors. Step-level rates changed as follows:

• Landing page  account creation start: 42%  39%
• Account creation start  account created: 78%  74%
• Account created  plan selected: 71%  62%
• Plan selected  checkout started: 83%  80%
• Checkout started  first order placed: 33%  31%

At the same time, paid social traffic mix increased from 28% to 36% of sessions, Android app traffic grew from 18% to 24%, and Germany remained stable while the US conversion dropped from 7.1% to 5.2%. A pricing banner and a checkout UX change were launched on HelloFresh web 10 days ago.

Requirements

1. Define the primary conversion metric and the exact funnel stages you would use.
2. Decompose the drop to identify the biggest driver(s) by step, channel, device, geography, and cohort.
3. Explain how you would distinguish a real product issue from traffic-mix shift or instrumentation breakage.
4. List the first hypotheses you would test and the order you would test them.
5. Recommend immediate actions and guardrail metrics to monitor.

Data Available

• signup_funnel_events
• web_session_logs
• app_event_logs
• checkout_orders
• marketing_attribution
• experiment_exposure_logs
• pricing_banner_impressions