ShopNow, a mid-sized e-commerce marketplace processing 1.2M orders per month, wants to predict whether a newly placed order will be returned within 30 days. The operations team will use the score to prioritize manual review and optimize reverse-logistics planning.
You are given an order-level tabular dataset built from the last 18 months of transactions.
| Feature Group | Count | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Customer history | 8 | prior_orders_90d, prior_return_rate, avg_order_value |
| Order attributes | 10 | item_count, total_amount, discount_pct, payment_method |
| Product signals | 9 | category, brand_tier, fragile_flag, size_variance_score |
| Fulfillment | 6 | shipping_speed, warehouse_region, delivery_delay_days |
| Behavioral | 5 | session_length, device_type, referral_channel |
returned_30d — whether the order was returned within 30 daysA good solution should achieve ROC-AUC >= 0.84, PR-AUC >= 0.50, and recall >= 0.70 at precision >= 0.45 on a held-out test set.