Company Context

Google is evaluating whether to launch a new consumer-facing digital payments and merchant acceptance service in Nigeria under the Google Pay brand. The proposed service would allow users to store funds, pay merchants online and offline, and use Google Pay for peer-to-peer transfers and bill payments. Google already has strong reach in the market through Android, Google Search, YouTube, and Google Play, but it does not yet have a scaled local payments product in Nigeria. You are a Research Analyst supporting the strategy team.

Strategic Situation

Google leadership wants an initial recommendation on whether Nigeria is an attractive launch market, what research should be prioritized first, and what go-to-market model would make sense if the opportunity is attractive. The decision matters now because smartphone adoption and digital payments are growing quickly, regulators are formalizing frameworks for wallets and payment service providers, and competitors are expanding merchant acceptance networks. Leadership does not want a generic market scan; they want a structured view of market size, competitive intensity, likely adoption barriers, and the most credible path to scale.

Data Points

Additional assumptions for this case:

• Estimated take rate for merchant payments: 1.0% of payment volume
• Estimated average annual revenue per active P2P/bill-pay user: $2.50
• Initial launch budget available: $25M over 18 months
• Google can secure at most 2 major bank/payment infrastructure partnerships in year 1
• Leadership expects a recommendation within 6 weeks

Deliverables

As the Research Analyst, outline how you would approach this decision:

1. Define the research agenda: What questions would you answer first, and in what order?
2. Size the opportunity: Estimate a realistic TAM, SAM, and 3-year SOM for Google Pay in Nigeria.
3. Assess competition and market structure: Evaluate key local and global players, likely sources of advantage, and barriers to entry.
4. Recommend a go-to-market approach: Identify target user segments, partnership strategy, and launch sequencing.
5. Make a clear recommendation: Should Google proceed now, delay, or avoid this market?

Constraints

• Recommendation must be based on a lightweight but rigorous research plan that can be executed in 6 weeks.
• Google cannot assume immediate nationwide merchant acceptance at launch.
• Regulatory approval may require local licensing or a partner-led structure.
• The strategy must fit within the $25M initial budget and existing Google product ecosystem.